@article {875,
	title = {Non-parametric Polygenic Risk Prediction via Partitioned GWAS Summary Statistics.},
	journal = {Am J Hum Genet},
	volume = {107},
	year = {2020},
	month = {2020 07 02},
	pages = {46-59},
	abstract = {<p>In complex trait genetics, the ability to predict phenotype from genotype is the ultimate measure of our understanding of genetic architecture underlying the heritability of a trait. A complete understanding of the genetic basis of a trait should allow for predictive methods with accuracies approaching the trait{\textquoteright}s heritability. The highly polygenic nature of quantitative traits and most common phenotypes has motivated the development of statistical strategies focused on combining myriad individually non-significant genetic effects. Now that predictive accuracies are improving, there is a growing interest in the practical utility of such methods for predicting risk of common diseases responsive to early therapeutic intervention. However, existing methods require individual-level genotypes or depend on accurately specifying the genetic architecture underlying each disease to be predicted. Here, we propose a polygenic risk prediction method that does not require explicitly modeling any underlying genetic architecture. We start with summary statistics in the form of SNP effect sizes from a large GWAS cohort. We then remove the correlation structure across summary statistics arising due to linkage disequilibrium and apply a piecewise linear interpolation on conditional mean effects. In both simulated and real datasets, this new non-parametric shrinkage (NPS) method can reliably allow for linkage disequilibrium in summary statistics of 5 million dense genome-wide markers and consistently improves prediction accuracy. We show that NPS improves the identification of groups at high risk for breast cancer, type 2 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, and coronary heart disease, all of which have available early intervention or prevention treatments.</p>},
	keywords = {Aged, Cohort Studies, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Female, Genome-Wide Association Study, Genotype, Humans, Linkage Disequilibrium, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Genetic, Multifactorial Inheritance, Phenotype, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Quantitative Trait Loci},
	issn = {1537-6605},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ajhg.2020.05.004},
	author = {Chun, Sung and Imakaev, Maxim and Hui, Daniel and Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A and Neale, Benjamin M and Kathiresan, Sekar and Stitziel, Nathan O and Sunyaev, Shamil R}
}
